iPhone的经验和问题X和iPhone 8

是诱人的,容易对世界上最富有的公司开始年度推出的新产品,有效地达到一个宣传视频构建定制的巨大代价公布说,将约翰·列侬的配乐唱“你所需要的只是爱”。1


没有什么你能做的,不能做
你可以唱什么不能唱
什么你能说但你可以学习如何玩这个游戏
很容易

你什么也不能做
没有人可以拯救不能得救
你可以做但你可以学会
很容易

In fact, the song was perfect; the temptation to be cynical is right there in the first verse, with the observation that by virtue of doing or singing or making you are operating in the bounds of what is merely possible, no more然而,第二节滔滔不绝的救恩:发现自己,找到满足毕竟,你是唯一一个能够完成精确的任务。

这首歌结束后,只不过在舞台上说“欢迎来到乔布斯剧院,已故苹果创始人和两届CEO的记录了同样的观点:

有很多方法是作为一个人有些人以不同的方式表达深深的谢意但是的一种方式,我相信人们表达他们的感谢其他人类做一些奇妙而把它和你永远不满足的人,你永远不会动摇他们的手,你永远不会听到他们的故事或者告诉你的,但不知何故,在制造东西的行为极大的关心和爱,是传播它是一种表达的方式我们物种高度赞赏所以我们需要真实的我们是谁,记住什么对我们是非常重要的这就是要让苹果苹果,如果我们让我们。

我不知道什么时候乔布斯说这些话,但最引人注目的例子之一,他的意思是,根据定义,还在后面我脑海中立即去了几天后乔布斯去世了在2011年10月:

Spontaneously, all over the world, makeshift memorials, usually around Apple Stores, sprang up to honor someone whom, to paraphrase Jobs, they never met, whose hand they never shook, who never heard their story — and frankly, had they met Jobs, they very well might have regretted the experience!

That, though, was Jobs’ point: the stories of his mistreatment of those closest to him, both professional and deeply personal, reveal the man’s weaknesses; I see no need and have no desire to whitewash them他建立的公司和产品,产生这样的深度情感依恋主人,不过,捕捉他的优势,苹果的客户感到赞赏你可以称之为爱。

To return to Lennon’s words, Jobs, particularly in his second stint at Apple, had learned how to be himself: less designer than editor-in-chief, Jobs not only drove those he worked with to create “with great deal of care”, he also set Apple on a path towards being its best self众所周知,意味着硬件和软件的集成,但至少在iPhone的情况下,相关的硅集成下降。

为此,苹果推出的产品在新史蒂夫·乔布斯戏剧不可能是更合适的:细胞观察明显小于竞争对手类似的电池寿命,新iPhone 8改善几乎在每一个维度,并且,当然,iPhone X,几乎每一个新功能集成的依赖。2

关于这个缺口

苹果显然决定不减少切口,顶部的黑色的保险开关一样的iPhone X,传感器和摄像机的数组If anything, the company went out of its way to emphasize it, including playing video such that the notch obscured what was being shown (that is actually an optional view; by default video is letter-boxed such that it avoids the notch).

我想强调等级服务,另一个目的:它是什么,以自己的方式,只有苹果可以做的事情。3.首先,操作系统需要修改的工作整个堆栈的只有苹果有足够的控制,他们可以在软件中实现这样一个激进的改革以适应变化的硬件Second, applications will need to be reworked to look their best; thousands of developers are hard at work today doing just that, because the iOS ecosystem is so valuable.

Moving beyond the notch, Apple is also demonstrating its power over users; using an iPhone X is going to be significantly different than any other previous iPhone一切都变了,从解锁手机调用Siri退出应用程序向苹果支付多任务然而,毫无疑问,数百万人会这样做(自然,坚持新方法显然是更好的)。

What is and remains so brilliant about the iPhone specifically and Apple’s business broadly is how everything is aligned around Apple being the Apple Jobs envisioned: a company that shows its “appreciation to the rest of humanity [by making] something wonderful and put[ting] it out there.” By making the请接受我最美好的祝愿,products Apple earns loyal customers willing to pay a premium; loyal customers give Apple both freedom to make large scale changes and also a point of leverage against partners like航空公司和开发人员然后,由此产生的利润让苹果买小公司做产品研发创造下一组。

这是iPhone的故事:十年来每一个模型是一个有意义的跳过去,给苹果一个束缚的市场没有需要进一步细分:世界各地的智能手机市场增长,和苹果的溢价部分事实上,该公司是一个错误- 2013的iPhone 5 c -来自一个误导性尝试去低端市场。

iPhone 5度

“失足”也许是有点苛刻我们知道iPhone 5 c是这样的:2013年苹果巨大的外部压力下,不仅在媒体,尤其是在华尔街4,生产成本更低的iPhone大多数分析家确信该公司尚未饱和的高端,但迫在眉睫的危险被打乱了足够好的Android手机便宜5,和投机猖獗,苹果将发布一个新的iPhone价格大大降低。

苹果走另一个方向;在其中一场我最喜欢苹果,公司坚持高端The iPhone 5C was cheaper than the 5S, announced on the same day, but only by $100; it was effectively a replacement for the iPhone 5 in terms of Apple’s previous practice of selling previous iPhones at a lower price.

Still, I for one thought it would sell very well; all indications are that Apple agreed, but it quickly became apparent that customers overwhelmingly preferred the iPhone 5S苹果在股票,努力保持后者产生太多的5 c,两年后模式悄然停止我wrote at the time:

5度的问题,是它不是一个iPhone好,从技术上讲,这是——这是由苹果,毕竟——特别是在亚洲,特别是在中国,甚至iPhone不仅仅是苹果的硬件和软件是如此骄傲的整合这是设备的新兴上层中产阶级消费者,什么是聪明的sell-old-flagship-iPhones战略是它允许超水平发挥的更便宜的iPhone:毕竟,iPhone 5 s你退出你的口袋里和桌子上随意的地方可能是崭新的今天(因为你只能买得起450美元),或者你可能只是还没有取代了iPhone你买全价的时候出来了Regardless, you have a flagship; the 5C, on the other hand, was from day one not the flagship, and quite obvious about it (one is reminded of Jony Ive calling it “unapologetically plastic”)买5 c是展示你买不起更好的一个。

5度的失败,这样,表明iPhone有三个截然不同的市场:

  • 顾客想要的最好的手机他们买了5 s。
  • 顾客想要拥有最有地位的手机在市场上的声誉主要集中在中国,他们买了黄金5 s。
  • 顾客渴望拥有一个顶级的iPhone,但买不起他们买了4 s而不是5 c。

What was missing was the cost-conscious customer; the truth is that if price is the priority an Android phone will always winBy 2013 even the cheapest phones were “good enough”; only people who cared about owning an iPhone would pay more,6当然如果他们要支付更多他们想要最好的,或者至少一个电话发出的声望已经在某个时间点上最好的。

更多的经验教训

一年后,苹果iphone(最后)发布两个大大大屏幕:iphone 6和6 +反应是难以置信的:iPhone销售较上年同期上升高达45%虽然,iPhone 6 s更加严厉的销售很明显,苹果已经被提出一些升级iPhone 6,即使其他客户持有足够好的手机时间更长。

iPhone 7巩固了这一观点:增长返回内联模型认为iPhone 6提前升级in an increasingly saturated market; Apple was no longer benefiting from overall smartphone growth, but the company also wasn’t losing customers to Android — if anything, it was gaining them.

中国是一个例外正如我所指出的苹果的中国问题,iPhone在中国增长世界各地但萎缩,我指责WeChat:

WeChat作品在iOS一样在Android上通过扩展,意味着中国的日常生活没有点球开关远离iPhone不出所料,与此形成鲜明对比的是,世界其他地区,根据今年早些时候的一份报告只有50%的iPhone用户在2016年收购了另一个电话在与苹果公司:

这仍然是比竞争,但相比80% +保留率苹果在世界其他地方的喜欢低,这是令人震惊的,结果是,iPhone已经滑下中国的销售排名:iPhone的销量去年只有9.6%的市场份额,仅次于中国本土品牌像朋友一样,华为和体内All of those companies sold high-end phones of their own; the issue isn’t that Apple was too expensive, it’s that the iPhone 6S and 7 were simply too boring.

还有一个教训从iPhone 7:苹果首次上调价格Specifically, the iPhone 7 Plus was $769, $20 more than the iPhone 6S Plus at launch; the iPhone 7 pricing was identical to the iPhone 6S ($650)理论上应该遏制需求7 +,但相反的情况发生了:苹果出售更多的7优点相对于7比6优点相对于6年代需要澄清的是,我不认为他们销售更多因为of the price change; rather, consumer preferences continued to move towards bigger phones and, at least for an iPhone buyer, price simply isn’t the top priority.

苹果iPhone的新策略

Forgive the long-winded history of the iPhone, but I think it is critical to understand Apple’s thinking when it comes to this year’s announcements; I think all of the lessons I referenced above influenced this lineup:

开始在顶部iPhone X卖我确认以上两个市场:

  • 顾客想要的最好的手机
  • 顾客想要拥有最有地位的手机在市场上的声誉

Note that both of these markets are relatively price-insensitive; to that end, $999 (or, more realistically, $1149 for the 256 GB model), isn’t really an obstacle对于后者市场,它可以说是一种积极的。

iPhone 8(8 +),与此同时,iPhone是缓慢而稳定的市场,买了7:以前的iPhone用户升级和Android转换器至关重要的是,iPhone 8也渴望一个iPhone的人不,他们负担不起一个iPhone 8,但iPhone 6 s他们可以看起来几乎完全相同,并在几年内iPhone 8仍被视为一个once-flagship (SE,与此同时,故意猿once-flagship 5 s的形状)哦,顺便说一下,苹果是提高价格在8:如果价格不是主要因素,你能走多远?

苹果公司的风险

That said, I think Apple is taking a pretty significant risk with the iPhone 8 in particular: we know the company can succeed by selling the “best” phone, but the one example we have of building a less-than-best phone was underwhelming; to that end, how many iPhone buyers will forgo the 8 to wait for the X?

在某些方面,这是一个很好的问题,客户想要给你更多的钱买更贵的手机,但事实上iPhone X直到11月才推出表明它是在生产,这也进一步表明供应是有限的一段时间很有可能,苹果的财政Q12018结果将抑郁供应有限。

Of course this is a short-term problem; I do expect the iPhone X to be a massive hit in China in particular事实上,我不会感到惊讶,如果大多数早期的iPhone X供应用于My argument about WeChat’s effect on Apple is that it elevates the importance of fresh hardware designs over iOS when it comes to iPhone sales; iPhone X is as fresh as it gets.


还有一个节在列侬的歌曲:


你知道不知道
你可以看到,不显示
你无处可说不是你要去的地方
很容易

I have to disagree: I don’t know if Apple can segment the iPhone market; what has been shown is that they can’t, that the iPhone can only be the best, nothing less.

这就是为什么我觉得这发射如此引人入胜,并将密切关注即将到来的季度的结果:乔布斯打造的苹果是最好的,该公司已成功通过这是否取消抵押品赎回权的可能性也非常好,和接下来的收益市场细分?

  1. 不幸的是,事件的视频no longer includes the opening with The Beatles song; you’ll have to take my word for it [↩︎]
  2. 我将涵盖所有方面的苹果主题在明天的每日更新(↩︎]
  3. 其他手机,像重要的电话, do have a much smaller cutout; the operating system isn’t re-worked to the degree the iOS is for the iPhone X, though, nor will developers put in special work [↩︎]
  4. 股票2013年4月已降至55.79美元,上年同期的近一半的价格(↩︎]
  5. 在一个偶然的巧合,我在2013年开始Stratechery,我得到了很多早期牵引认为苹果很好(↩︎]
  6. I’m generalizing here; some customers genuinely prefer Android and primarily bought Samsung; Apple dominated the high end though [↩︎]