定义聚合器

(Note: this is not a typical Stratechery article; there is no over-arching narrative or reference to current news相反,主要目标是提供一个未来的参考点)

(即聚合理论描述了平台聚合器)主宰的行业竞争系统的和可预测的聚合理论应该作为一个指南为有抱负的平台公司,为行业基于控制分配一个警告,一个引物对监管机构应对不可避免的聚合理论的最后阶段的反垄断问题。

聚合理论是在上乐队2015年的这篇文章这篇文章之后的一系列文章Airbnb,网飞公司,web发布that, I realized, fit together into a broader framework that was applicable to a range of Internet-enabled companies在接下来的两年我大大充实原文的思想,但后续文章一定是一篇文章链接标志着聚合理论的开始,而不是当前状态。

That noted,原来的文章is very much worth reading, particularly its description of how value has shifted away from companies that control the distribution of scarce resources to those that control demand for abundant ones; the purpose of this article is to catalog exactly what the latter look like.

聚合器的特点

Aggregators have all three of the following characteristics; the absence of any one of them can result in a very successful business (in the case of Apple, arguably the most successful business in history), but it means said company is not an aggregator.

直接与用户的关系

这一点很简单,然而一切的关键是:整合与用户有直接的关系这可能是一个支付的关系,一个帐户,或者只是一个基于常规用法(认为谷歌和值得用户)。

为用户服务的边际成本为零

公司传统上不得不承担()三种类型的边际成本时直接为用户/客户服务。

  • 售出商品的成本(齿轮),也就是说,生产商品或提供服务的成本
  • 分销成本,这是一个项目的成本向客户(通常是通过零售)或促进服务的条款(通常是通过房地产)
  • 交易成本,成本的执行一个交易的商品或服务,提供客户服务,等等。

聚合器承担这些成本:

  • 货物“出售”由一个聚合器是数字,因此零边际成本(当然,他们可能有重要的固定成本)1
  • 这些数字产品是通过互联网,导致零分销成本2
  • 交易通过自动账户管理,自动处理信用卡支付等。3.

This characteristic means that businesses like Apple hardware and Amazon’s traditional retail operations are not aggregators; both bear significant costs in serving the marginal customer (and, in the case of Amazon in particular, have achieved such scale that the service’s relative cost of distribution is actually a moat).

需求具有多重网络,降低收购成本

Because aggregators deal with digital goods, there is an abundance of supply; that means users reap value through discovery and curation, and most aggregators get started by delivering superior discovery.

然后,一旦一个聚合器获得了一些终端用户的数量,供应商将进入聚合的平台聚合的条件,有效地大众化和模块化这些额外的供应商然后使聚合器更吸引更多的用户,进而吸引更多的供应商,在一个良性循环。

This means that for aggregators, customer acquisition costs decrease over time; marginal customers are attracted to the platform by virtue of the increasing number of suppliers这意味着进一步聚合器享受赢家通吃的影响:由于聚合器对最终用户的价值是不断增加的竞争对手是非常难以带走用户或赢得新客户。

这与non-aggregator non-platform公司的脸增加客户获取成本为他们的用户群的增长That is because initial customers are often a perfect product-market fit; however, as that fit decreases, the surplus value from the product decreases as well and quickly turns negative一般来说,任何业务,创造客户价值内部不是一个聚合器由于其客户获取成本最终将限制其增长潜力。

一个额外的注意:前面提到的苹果和亚马逊有符合聚合器的企业,至少在某种程度上:对于苹果来说,应用程序商店(以及谷歌玩店)苹果拥有用户关系,用户提供带来零边际成本,有一个网络应用程序开发人员不断改进供应响应需求同时,亚马逊,亚马逊商业服务,是一个双向网络,亚马逊拥有最终用户和通过所有的边际成本(即的商人供应商)。

分类聚合器

Aggregation is fundamentally about owning the user relationship and being able to scale that relationship; that said, there are different levels of aggregation based on the aggregator’s relationship to suppliers:

一级聚合器:供应收购

Level 1 Aggregators acquire their supply; their market power springs from their relationship with users, but is primarily manifested through superior buying power这意味着这些聚合器需要更长的时间来构建和在短期内更不稳定。

最好的例子Netflix一级聚合器Netflix拥有用户关系和熊没有边际成本的齿轮,分销成本,4或交易成本。5Moreover, Netflix does not create shows, but it does acquire them (increasingly exclusively to Netflix); the more content Netflix acquires, the more its value grows to potential usersNetflix用户收益越多,就越可以花在收购内容在一个良性循环。

Level 1 aggregators typically operate in industries where supply is highly differentiated, and are susceptible to competitors with deeper pockets or orthogonal business models.

2级聚合器:供应交易成本

Level 2 Aggregators do not own their supply; however, they do incur transaction costs in bringing suppliers onto their platform,限制了二级聚合器的增长率没有显著的入侵供应商收购成本。

乳房是一个二级聚合器(在某些司法辖区Airbnb由于地方性法规)超级拥有用户关系和熊没有边际成本的齿轮,分销成本、交易成本Moreover, Uber does not own cars; those are supplied by drivers who sign up for the platform directly在这一点上,虽然超级像背景调查需要进行步骤,车辆验证等,导致交易成本的金钱以及时间这限制供应增长最终需求增长的限制。

2级聚合器通常在重要行业监管问题,适用于供应商的质量和安全。

3级聚合器:零供应成本

3级聚合器不拥有自己的供应和不会产生供应商采购成本(以吸引供应商或加载)。

谷歌是典型的三级聚合器:供应商(即网站)不仅可以访问谷歌在默认情况下,但事实上积极让自己更容易地搜索和发现的(事实上,是整个行业——搜索引擎优化(SEO)是基于供应商支付让自己在谷歌更有效)。

Social networks are also Level 3 Aggregators: initial supply is provided by users (who are both users and suppliers); over time, as more and more attention is given to the social networks, professional content creators add their content to the social network for free.

3级聚合器是基于大量的用户,这意味着他们通常以广告为基础的(这意味着他们对用户是免费的)一个有趣的例外是上述应用商店:在这种情况下,有限的市场规模(相对而言)的显著增加是由revenue-per-customer提供给应用程序开发者与合适的商业模式(主要是消费品应用内购买)。

的Super-Aggregators

Super-Aggregators至少具有多重市场运作三个双方——用户、供应商和广告商,零边际成本唯一的两个例子是Facebook和谷歌,除了免费吸引用户和供应商,也有自助广告模型,产生收入没有相应的可变成本(其他社交网络188足球比分直播网和Snapchat更大程度上依赖于销售驱动广告销售)。

更多关于Super-Aggregators看到这篇文章

调节聚合器

鉴于聚合器的赢家通吃的本质,至少在理论上,一个明确的关系反垄断和聚合然而,传统的法学受到三个因素:

  • 聚合器的关键特征是它们自己的用户关系至关重要的是,用户选择这种关系,因为聚合器提供了优良的服务这很难使反垄断参数基于消费者福利(美国标准法理学在过去35年)。
  • The nature of digital markets is such that aggregators may be inevitable; traditional regulatory relief, like breaking companies up or limiting their addressable markets will likely result in a new aggregator simply taking their place.
  • 聚合器使其大大简单又便宜的供应商达到客户(这就是为什么这么努力工作在他们的平台供应商)This increases the types of new businesses that can be created by virtue of the aggregators existing (YouTube creators, Amazon merchants, small publications, etc.); regulators should take care to preserve these new opportunities (and even protect them).

These are guidelines for regulation; determining specifics is an ongoing project for Stratechery, as are the definitions in this article.

  1. And yes, in the very long run, all fixed costs are marginal costs; that said, while the amount of capital costs for aggregators is massive, their userbase is so large that even over the long run the fixed costs per user are infinitesimal, particularly relative to revenue generated [↩︎]
  2. In terms of the marginal customer; in aggregate there are of course significant bandwidth costs, but see the previous footnote [↩︎]
  3. 信用卡费用是一个巨大的交易成本,限制某些类型的企业,但通常会被忽略在这分析(↩︎]
  4. 明显的总成本是一个特别大的带宽Netflix(↩︎]
  5. 在所有情况下,信用卡费用除外↩︎]