弹出出版泡沫

在过去的几个星期和几个月里,人们越来越警觉,今天,即9月16日,对于出版商来说是至关重要的 - 而且至关重要的是,我的意思是大多数出版商将很快处于危急状态的诊断毕竟,今天苹果iOS版本9支持“内容屏蔽扩展”这将有效地使广告阻滞剂Safari,iOS的默认浏览器。

That it’s Safari is important; the concern about ad blockers is, for now, a bit overwrought given that a much larger proportion of page views for most publishers comes from Facebook, which, along with 188足球比分直播网 and most other social networks, uses a classic web view controller that isn’t affected by the new content blockers.1However, while the concern over ad-blockers may be too early, publisher angst is arguably too late: if iOS 9 ad blockers do end up causing serious harm it is only because the publishers have been living in an unsustainable bubble that is going to pop sooner rather than later.

过去的好时光

在互联网时代之前,出版商很容易:一方面,他们聘请的记者的目标是尽可能多地接触读者。另一方面,他们很大程度上由广告商支付,其目标是达到尽可能多的潜在客户对齐 - 尽可能多地达到X - 显而易见,特别是对于出版商而言是有利可图的。

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这对记者来说也是一次伟大的演出当然,大多数人并没有致富,但他们得到了不同的补偿:需要担心赚钱的特权As for the advertisers, where else were they going to go? Radio and TV took their share of advertising dollars from newspapers, but both formats had only limited inventory given the fact there were a finite number of channels (or stations) and only 24 hours in a day.

互联网影响

从纸张到数字的转变意味着出版物现在可以覆盖地球上的每个人(不仅仅是他们的地理区域),并且开始新出版物比以前更加容易和便宜这有两个重要的含义:

  • 现在有一个实际上无限量的广告库存,这意味着无差别广告的价格已无情地向零走向零
  • “读者”和“潜在客户”成为两个截然不同的实体,这意味着出版商和广告商不再一致

这第一点是显而易见的,著名的,但第二个的重要性不能被夸大:出版商一直采取广告理所当然(或者,正如记者所说,竖立了“政教分离”)根据假设他们已经垄断了读者的关注The increase in competition destroyed the monopoly, but it was the divorce of “readers” from “potential customers” that prevented even the largest publishers from profiting much from the massive amounts of new traffic they were receivingAfter all, advertisers don’t really care about readers; they care about identifying, reaching, and converting potential customers而且,通过扩展,这意味着差异化广告库存的数量依赖于数量,更多地取决于特定广告提供卓越定位,优质格式或卓越跟踪的程度。

这种分歧在激励导致大量的网络广告:出版商共同提供房地产在整理读者面前,虽然广告网络的责任来识别并跟踪潜在客户代表广告商注意,这种关系的正交性:出版商和广告网络的目的。

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结果是广告网络并不真正关心读者 - 这是一个重要原因为什么网页很糟糕——和从另一方面出版商并不真的在乎广告商,导致点击欺诈,像素馅,广告堆积,一大堆的边缘的可疑行为的合法性和绝对不是广告商的兴趣。

与任何其他基于错误激励措施的公司或行业一样,这是不可持续的。

迫在眉睫的广告商出埃及记

The above graph shows the inefficiency of this arrangement: publishers and ad networks are locked in a dysfunctional relationship that doesn’t serve readers or advertisers, and it’s only a matter of time until advertisers — which again, care only about reaching potential customers, wherever they may be — desert the whole mess entirely for new, more efficient and effective advertising options that put them directly in front of the people they care about首先,这是Facebook,但其他社交网络如188足球比分直播网,Snapchat,Instagram,Pinterest等也将受益:

stratechery第一年- 240

请注意,这一切都不取决于广告拦截器的采用事实上,广告阻滞剂真的不伤害广告主,无论如何:屏蔽广告是不支付,这意味着疼痛完全落在出版商但是,正如我所指出的,事实是,广告不是长对于大多数在线出版。

出版商应该做些什么呢?

很容易为出版商感到遗憾:互联网之前,大部分都在赚钱,游泳和前几年网上看起来较低的在线出版物生产成本将是有利可图的然而,问题是假设广告资金将永远存在,导致“构建它并且它们将来”的心态几乎完全集中在内容制作上,而在可持续商业模式上则太少。

In fact, publishers going forward need to have the exact opposite attitude from publishers in the past: instead of focusing on journalism and getting the business model for free, publishers need to start with a sustainable business model and focus on journalism that works hand-in-hand with the business model they have chosen首先这意味着出版商需要回答任何企业所需要的最基本的问题:他们是一个利基或规模业务吗?

  • 利基企业通过在(相对)小用户群上最大化每个用户的收入来赚钱
  • 规模企业通过最大化他们达到的用户数来赚钱

事实上,大多数出版物都试图做一些事情:在这里每个用户获得更多收入,在那里吸引更多用户However, unless you’re the New York Times (and even then it’s questionable), trying to do everything is a recipe for failing at everything; these two strategies require different revenue models, different journalistic focuses, and even different presentation styles:

  • 收入模型:
    • 对于小众出版物,鉴于他们需要最大化每个用户的收入,最明显的收入模式是订阅However, niche publications are also a great fit for native advertising; to use a random example, what model railroad company wouldn’t want to place content on the premier model railroad blog? Sure, that may seem impossibly narrow and unscalable, but the point of niches is that while they are likely to be dominated by just one or two publications, there are a massive number of niches in the world, most of which are underserved both from a journalistic standpoint and especially an ad inventory standpoint
    • Broad-based publications will obviously be ad-driven; to reach the maximum number of people a publication must be free然而,尽管广泛的出版商可能会继续获得尽可能多的收入来自他们的网站,随着时间的推移越来越多的收入可能来自于诸如Facebook的即时或文章recently-rumored倡议从谷歌和188足球比分直播网构建一个开源的替代方案2
  • 新闻焦点:
    • 利基出版物将非常集中The key to earning subscription revenue is to have a highly differentiated product that people are willing to pay for; similarly, the most effective native advertising model is placing content in a feed that people actively seek out and read to completion
    • 基于广泛的出版物将专注于吸引最大兴趣,点击次数,特别是份额的故事While much of this content will be about entertainment and amusement (the “Lifestyle” section has long been among the most profitable for newspapers) there will also be an incentive to create stories that have a wide-ranging impact
  • 演示风格:
    • 利基出版物将成为目的地网站:让读者有意识地访问为此,利基出版物投资网站设计甚至是故事设计使其网站脱颖而出是有意义的
    • 另一方面,基于广泛的出版物应侧重于尽可能简化其演示,以便更好地实现各个客户接触点的可移植性Text and images work everywhere; custom layouts not so much

The key thing about both of these models is that they fix the incentive problem: subscriptions tie niche publications to their readers in about as direct a way as possible, while a native advertising model is effective because, just like the old days, it ensures that the reader and the customer-to-be-reached by the advertiser are one and the same.

至于基础广泛的出版物,请记住广告商关心的内容:无论他们身在何处,都可以接触到潜在客户,这恰恰恰好是广泛的出版物应该做的事情 - 随处可见他们的内容,无论他们的潜在读者在哪里没有公司像BuzzFeed那样指出这一点:事实上,是什么让他们的广告代理商业务模式如此有效,是因为他们的编辑和广告团队做了完全相同的事情完全相同的方式。3

This didn’t happen by accident; to BuzzFeed founder and CEO Jonah Peretti’s credit, BuzzFeed was built from day one to be a商业以老式的方式赚钱:通过比任何竞争对手更好地做他们所做的事情。4寻求模仿他们的成功 - 以及他们的成长 - 的出版物需要这样做,而不仅仅是通过制作列表或专注于社交从根本上说,就像BuzzFeed一样,他们需要从他们的商业模式开始:新闻业的未来取决于拥抱太多记者自豪无法忽视的事情。


Discuss this article on the战略论坛会员制

  1. 应用程序可以使用iOS 9的新Safari视图控制器,它基本上使用Safari作为应用程序内浏览器,正如预期的那样,它将利用已安装并启用的内容阻止扩展3rd-party 188足球比分直播网 apps 188足球比分直播网rific and Tweetbot have already instituted the Safari view controller, but it’s unclear if Facebook and the other official social network apps will follow suit; note that Facebook, for example, has yet to institute iOS’s now year-old share sheet because the social network (understandably) prefers to control where content is shared [↩︎]
  2. 或Apple News,另一个iOS 9功能但是,我有点怀疑:我认为那些寻求新闻的人会是那些喜欢可能属于利基模式的出版物的确切类型[↩︎]
  3. 这种商业模式的优雅是我称为BuzzFeed的原因世界上最重要的新闻机构(↩︎]
  4. 更正:BuzzFeed是一项实验,直到Peretti离开赫芬顿邮报才能成为一家企业[↩︎]